Predictive role of early recurrence of atrial fibrillation after cryoballoon ablation

Aims: The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the predictors of early recurrences of atrial fibrillation (ERAF) after cryoballoon (CB) ablation and to evaluate whether ERAF correlate with the long-term outcome. Methods and results: Three thousand, six hundred, and eighty-one consecutive patients (59.9 ± 10.5 years, female 26.5%, and 74.3% paroxysmal AF) were included in the analysis. Atrial fibrillation recurrence, lasting at least 30 s, was collected during and after the 3-month blanking period. Three-hundred and sixteen patients (8.6%) (Group A) had ERAF during the blanking period, and 3365 patients (Group B) had no ERAF. Persistent AF and number of tested anti-arrhythmic drugs ≥2 resulted as significant predictors of ERAF. After a mean follow-up of 16.8 ± 16.4 months, 923/3681 (25%) patients had at least one AF recurrence. The observed freedom from AF recurrence, at 24-month follow-up from procedure, was 25.7% and 64.8% in Groups A and B, respectively (P < 0.001). ERAF, persistent AF, and number of tested anti-arrhythmic drugs ≥2 resulted as significant predictors of AF. In a propensity score matching, the logistic model showed that ERAF 1 month after ablation are the best predictor of long-term AF recurrence (P = 0.042). Conclusion: In patients undergoing CB ablation for AF, ERAF are rare and are a strong predictor of AF recurrence in the follow-up, above all when occur >30 days after the ablation.