Data-driven scenario analysis supports the revival of historic silvoarable systems for carbon smart rural landscapes

Agroforestry has long been recognised as a nature-based solution for climate mitigation, yet its adoption in Europe has drastically declined due to the socio-economic transformations and land use intensification since the onset of the Great Acceleration (ca. mid-twentieth century). This study reconstructs the historical role of agroforestry in Northern Italy by drawing on century-long land use records (1929-2024) and historical sources, which were crucial for identifying and modelling the carbon stock of traditional silvoarable systems. Through the integration of Monte Carlo simulations and scenario-based modelling, we estimate that historic silvoarable systems stored an average of 75.4 t C ha-1, with a potential range of 50.4-101.6 t C ha-1. The widespread abandonment of agroforestry practices led to a 97% reduction in their extent, accompanied by a corresponding expansion of monocultures. Future management scenarios suggest that restoring silvoarable systems could enhance regional carbon sequestration by up to 12%, a gain comparable to afforestation strategies requiring the conversion of 25% of existing farmland. Our findings underscore the global value of traditional ecological knowledge and historical land use strategies in informing carbon-smart agricultural transitions and shaping policies for resilient, multifunctional landscapes.