The objectives of the project will cover the main problems of which governance and market players are dealing with without any appropriate instruments market forecasting and risk assessment. In the latter years commodities markets started to exhibit uncommons trends, unlinked with demand-offer rules that regulated them in past years. These trends are due to financial speculation, changes in energy policies in many countries and some other factors that often are not part of the knowledge of agrofood market operators. Thus the traditionally applied models are unable to take them in account. For these reasons a joint project between International School for Advanced Studies (SISSA), Univerity of Milan, Univerity of Bologna Alma Mater Studiorum and Univerity of Perugia and under the patronage of ISMEA, Regione Lombardia and Ministero delle Politiche Agricole, Agroalimentari e Forestali was developed. Researchers from these institutions cover a really wide knowledge: econophysics, statistical analysis of complex systems, neuroscience and social psychology, rural economy and animal rearing. Aim of the project is the setting of forecasting and risk assessment models, providing to governance and market players useful tools for short and middle-time planning . To achieve this goal there will be employed innovative approaches for agrofood market as data-mining, causal inference in statistical analysis, modeling agent-based and some other approaches typically employed in quantitative finance.
The objectives of the project will cover the main problems of which governance and market players are dealing with without any appropriate instruments market forecasting and risk assessment. In the latter years commodities markets started to exhibit uncommons trends, unlinked with demand-offer rules that regulated them in past years. These trends are due to financial speculation, changes in energy policies in many countries and some other factors that often are not part of the knowledge of agrofood market operators. Thus the traditionally applied models are unable to take them in account. For these reasons a joint project between International School for Advanced Studies (SISSA), Univerity of Milan, Univerity of Bologna Alma Mater Studiorum and Univerity of Perugia and under the patronage of ISMEA, Regione Lombardia and Ministero delle Politiche Agricole, Agroalimentari e Forestali was developed. Researchers from these institutions cover a really wide knowledge: econophysics, statistical analysis of complex systems, neuroscience and social psychology, rural economy and animal rearing. Aim of the project is the setting of forecasting and risk assessment models, providing to governance and market players useful tools for short and middle-time planning . To achieve this goal there will be employed innovative approaches for agrofood market as data-mining, causal inference in statistical analysis, modeling agent-based and some other approaches typically employed in quantitative finance.