Impact of MS genetic loci on familial aggregation, clinical phenotype, and disease prediction

Objective: To investigate the role of known multiple sclerosis (MS)-associated genetic variants in MS familial aggregation, clinical expression, and accuracy of disease prediction in sporadic and familial cases. Methods: A total of 1,443 consecutive patients were screened for MS and familial autoimmune history in a hospital-based Italian cohort. Among them, 461 sporadic and 93 familial probands were genotyped for 107 MS-associated polymorphisms. Their effect sizes were combined to calculate the weighted genetic risk score (wGRS). Results: Family history of MS was reported by 17.2% of probands, and 33.8% reported a familial autoimmune disorder, with autoimmune thyroiditis and psoriasis being the most frequent. No difference in wGRS was observed between sporadic and familial MS cases. In contrast, a lower wGRS was observed in probands with greater familial aggregation (>1 first-degree relative or >2 relatives with MS) (p = 0.03). Also, female probands of familial cases with greater familial aggregation had a lower wGRS than sporadic cases (p = 0.0009) and male probands of familial cases (p = 0.04). An inverse correlation between wGRS and age at onset was observed (p = 0.05). The predictive performance of the genetic model including all known MS variants was modest but greater in sporadic vs familial cases (area under the curve = 0.63 and 0.57). Conclusions: Additional variants outside the known MS-associated loci, rare variants, and/or environmental factors may explain disease occurrence within families; in females, hormonal and epigenetic factors probably have a predominant role in explaining familial aggregation. The inclusion of these additional factors in future versions of aggregated genetic measures could improve their predictive ability.