Exploring land use scenarios in metropolitan areas: food balance in a local agricultural system by using a multi-objective optimization model

The assessment of sustainability of agro-food systems is based on different and several tools. However, economic and policy implications of structural changes, such as land use change, and other modifications, for instance a different orientation or farming technique, could be mainly determined through scenario analysis. Especially in metropolitan regions, where the agricultural sector is threatened by various different pressures, a food supply adequately respondent to the demand is needed. In this sense the paper proposes the utilization of mathematical programming to assess some possible scenarios related to a higher compliance between food supply and demand. The approach is based on a linear programming model that takes into account the production and consumption dimensions in the Milan Metropolitan Area. Five scenarios are simulated, with different levels of sustainability and compliance with demand, demonstrating the potentialities of the regional agro-food system in adapting and adjusting itself to such modifications.