A simple model to evaluate ice melt over the ablation area of glaciers in the Central Karakoram National Park, Pakistan

This study provides an estimate of fresh water derived from ice melt for the ablation areas of glaciers in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), Pakistan. In the CKNP there are ~700 glaciers, covering ~4600 km2, with widespread debris cover (518 km2). To assess meltwater volume we applied a distributed model able to describe both debris-covered and debris-free ice ablation. The model was calibrated using data collected in the field in the CKNP area and validated by comparison with ablation data collected in the field, independent of the data used in building the model. During 23 July–9 August 2011, the mean model-estimated ablation in the CKNP was 0.024 m w.e./ d in debris covered areas and 0.037 m w.e./ d in debris-free areas. We found a mean error of +0.01 m w.e. (corresponding to 2%) and a root-mean-square error equal to 0.09 m w.e. (17%). According to our model, the ablation areas of all the glaciers in the CKNP produced a water volume of 1.963 km3 during the study period. Finally, we performed several sensitivity tests for assessing the impact of the input data variations.