Leali, incerti o defezionisti? : atteggiamenti di voto post primarie nei selettori tra il 2007 e il 2013

Taking into account the theoretical debate and the empirical evidences in North american literature on primary elections, this article analyzes the strategic behavior of the selectors in terms of loyalty and defection, which means supporting the winner of the primaries to the next political election, instead of choosing a different candidate, party or coalition to vote. By comparing the primaries which were celebrated at national level in Italy between 2007 to 2013 (premier candidate and party leader selections), we find out two important trends: the growth of the post-primary defection over time and an higher influence of the candidate image (valence), which makes Italian primaries very similar to the American so-called deviating elections. The growth of the competition among candidates, together with the contendibility of the nomination, suggest as primary elections will increasingly become a useful tool for division rather than for union of the political parties, mainly in a context characterized by high inter and intra party fragmentation, like the Italian political system.