Ecology, Floristic–Vegetational Features, and Future Perspectives of Spruce Forests Affected by Ips typographus: Insight from the Southern Alps

In recent years, many spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst., Pinaceae) forests have been severely affected by bark beetle (Ips typographus L., Coleoptera: Curculionidae) outbreaks in the Southern Alps, but their ecological impacts remain poorly studied. We analyzed the distribution, ecological, and floristic–vegetational characteristics of forests recently affected by the bark beetle in the upper basin of the Oglio River (Northern Italy) and developed a MaxEnt model to map forests with a bioclimate more prone to severe insect attacks in the coming decades. The results showed that the spruce forests affected by the bark beetle are located exclusively in the submountain and mountain belts (below 1600 m a.s.l.) and that 85% of them are found in areas with high annual solar radiation (>3500 MJ m−2). The predictive model for areas susceptible to severe bark beetle attacks proved highly accurate (AUC = 0.91) and was primarily defined by the mean temperature of the dry winter quarter (contribution: 80.1%), with values between−2.5 and 2.5 ◦C being particularly suitable for the pest. According to the model, more than 58% of the current spruce forests in the study area will exhibit high susceptibility (probability > 0.7) to severe bark beetle attacks by 2080. The floristic–vegetational and ecological analysis of plant communities of 11 bark beetle-affected areas indicated that more thermophilic and significantly different forest communities (in both floristic and physiognomic terms) are expected to develop compared to those of pre-disturbance. Furthermore, the high coverage of spruce snags/standing dead trees appears to accelerate plant succession, enabling the establishment of mature forest communities in a shorter time frame.