Proposal for a New Pathologic Prognostic Index After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PINC)

Background: Limited information is available on the relevant prognostic variables after surgery for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) subjected to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). NACT is known to induce a spectrum of histological changes in PDAC. Different grading regression systems are currently available; unfortunately, they lack precision and accuracy. We aimed to identify a new quantitative prognostic index based on tumor morphology. Patients and Methods: The study population was composed of 69 patients with resectable or borderline resectable PDAC treated with preoperative NACT (neoadjuvant group) and 36 patients submitted to upfront surgery (upfront-surgery group). A comprehensive histological assessment on hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained sections evaluated 20 morphological parameters. The association between patient survival and morphological variables was evaluated to generate a prognostic index. Results: The distribution of morphological parameters evaluated was significantly different between upfront-surgery and neoadjuvant groups, demonstrating the effect of NACT on tumor morphology. On multivariate analysis for patients that received NACT, the predictors of shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were perineural invasion and lymph node ratio. Conversely, high stroma to neoplasia ratio predicted longer OS and DFS. These variables were combined to generate a semiquantitative prognostic index based on both OS and DFS, which significantly distinguished patients with poor outcomes from those with a good outcome. Bootstrap analysis confirmed the reproducibility of the model. Conclusions: The pathologic prognostic index proposed is mostly quantitative in nature, easy to use, and may represent a reliable tumor regression grading system to predict patient outcomes after NACT followed by surgery for PDAC.