A stochastic model for simulation and forecasting of emergencies in the area of Milano
Contributo in Atti di convegno
Data di Pubblicazione:
2010
Citazione:
A stochastic model for simulation and forecasting of emergencies in the area of Milano / A. Micheletti, D. Morale, D. Rapati, P. Nolli - In: 2010 IEEE Workshop on Health Care Management[s.l] : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 2010. - ISBN 978-1-4244-4998-9. (( convegno IEEE Workshop on Health Care Management (WHCM) tenutosi a Venezia nel 2010 [10.1109/WHCM.2010.5441259].
Abstract:
In this paper a method for estimating and
forecasting the demand of ambulance service in the area of Milano is presented. We assume that time and location of an emergency service request are outcomes
of a space-time marked point process. Thus we estimate the intensity of the process on the basis of the records of specific emergency call history over 3 years (2005-
2007). The mean number of emergencies occurring daily is also related, via a linear regression model, to some exogenous variables, which can be measured and
used for the forecasting procedure. Simulation results based on such estimates and real data observed during 2008 are presented.
Tipologia IRIS:
03 - Contributo in volume
Keywords:
space-time stochastic processes ; point processes ; stochastic simulation
Elenco autori:
A. Micheletti, D. Morale, D. Rapati, P. Nolli
Link alla scheda completa:
Titolo del libro:
2010 IEEE Workshop on Health Care Management