Emerging Trends and Possible Futures of the Telecommunication Networks in Italy

This chapter explores the possible futures for the telecommunication
ecosystem in Italy, by focusing on a medium- and long-term
perspective through the application of Strategic Foresight techniques.
Our goal is identifying the most promising new directions and policies
for driving the ecosystem evolution towards the preferable scenario, by
working on different dimensions: market/economic models, technical advancement,
regulatory frameworks, and users’ expectations/perspectives.
Regarding the first aspect, we analyze the emerging opportunities for
companies in terms of enabling technologies and digital services that can
be built on top of connectivity services, by also discussing the status
of the network infrastructures in Italy. Then, the chapter examines the
technical dimension, assessing the potential impact of technologies such
as low-orbit satellites and aerial networks, the edge expansion, new materials
and devices for reducing the carbon footprint of networks, artificial
intelligence and programmability of networks, as well as the development
of novel communication services based on immersive applications. Moreover,
the research also analyzes the regulatory landscape, assessing the
influence of policies on the evolution of telecommunication networks. It
evaluates existing regulations and recommends reforms to stimulate innovation
and greater industry participation. Finally, innovative requirements
on the user side are presented. All these aspects are then projectedinto four strategic scenarios, that have been developed by identifying key
forces that could impact development trajectories, categorizing them as
“predetermined” (i.e., with a clear trend) or “variables” (i.e., subject to
unpredictable outcomes). In particular, we considered the combinations
of high-impact extreme outcomes along the identified axes (namely, a
unified European role: yes/no; level of urbanization: high/low) in scenarios
entitled United States of Europe, City-States 2.0, Distributed States
of Europe, and Digital Feudalism, for imaging the impact on the future
telecommunication ecosystem.