I sondaggi pre-elettorali : il mistero delle previsioni (quasi sempre) azzeccate

Unlike a common prejudice, especially in public opinion, political polls often correctly predict the election results. Although they disregard many of the most basic statistical principles. A real mystery, hence, that we try to face analyzing some recent elections (National 2013 and European 2014). Concluding that, when conducting investigations in the sphere of human and social sciences, it is appropriate that some statistical principles (in particular the inference and the theory of the samples) should be (at least partially) abandoned in favor of other more appropriate and innovative methodological principles.