Comparison of the prognostic value of the stress-recovery index versus standard electrocardiographic criteria in patients with a negative exercise electrocardiogram

To verify whether the stress recovery index (SRI) improves risk stratification in patients with a negative exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) using standard criteria, the SRI was derived in 708 consecutive patients with a negative exercise ECG. All-cause mortality and the combination of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction were target end points. The individual effect of clinical and exercise testing data on outcome was evaluated using Cox regression analysis with separate models for each group of variables. Model validation was performed using bootstrap adjusted by degree of optimism in estimates. Survival analysis was performed using a product-limit Kaplan-Meier method. During a 37-month follow-up, 22 deaths and 40 nonfatal acute coronary syndromes occurred. After adjusting for confounding variables, age (hazard ratio 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 2.31 for interquartile difference), hypertension (hazard ratio 1.74, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.89), and SRI (hazard ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.86 for interquartile difference) were predictive of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Moreover, SRI increased the prognostic power of the model on top of clinical and exercise testing variables and provided significant discrimination of survival. In conclusion, the SRI may help refine the prognostic stratification of patients with a negative exercise test result using standard electrocardiographic criteria.