Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2020
Citazione:
Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic / A. Comunian, R. Gaburro, M. Giudici. - In: PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA. - ISSN 0167-2789. - 413(2020), pp. 132674.1-132674.13.
Abstract:
Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles–Infected–Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly considers the role and the relevance of data. Together with a physical vision of the model, the present work addresses numerically the issue of parameters calibration in SIR models, it discusses the uncertainties in the data provided by international authorities, how they influence the reliability of calibrated model parameters and, ultimately, of model predictions.
Tipologia IRIS:
01 - Articolo su periodico
Keywords:
Inverse problems; SIR models; COVID-19
Elenco autori:
A. Comunian, R. Gaburro, M. Giudici
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