IMPACTS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATIONAL SECURITY: THE UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE ON HOMELAND DEFENSE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN ARCTIC
Tesi di Dottorato
Data di Pubblicazione:
2021
Citazione:
IMPACTS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATIONAL SECURITY: THE UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE ON HOMELAND DEFENSE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN ARCTIC / A. Lavorio ; supervisor: M. Clementi ; phd director: M. Jessoula. Dipartimento di Scienze Sociali e Politiche, 2021 Jul 21. 33. ciclo, Anno Accademico 2020.
Abstract:
The purpose of this research is to assess whether abrupt climate change (intended
as a major change in physical geography) can be a driver for national security planning.
To demonstrate that geography still affects national security planning, this research
retrieves the concept of environmental causality applied to an empirical case – that of US adaptation
to climate change for homeland defense in an area called “The North American Arctic.”
Consequently, the research frames the adaptation process into a causal mechanism where
proximity to climate change effects (experienced by some actors of the defense
domain) is the cause explaining the change of the United States (US) geostrategic
posture in the Arctic.
Indeed, one of the most severe impacts climate change is having on US national
security regards its homeland defense in the Arctic. Traditionally, the US was granted
continental defense thanks to its invulnerability in the Northern hemisphere. Still, with
the Arctic gatekeeper's collapse caused by climate change, US homeland defense may
be at stake. According to the environmental probabilistic perspective (here adopted),
the fact that climate change is shaping the physical conformation of the Arctic is not
necessarily acknowledged by policy-makers or military leaders since geography does
not dictate predetermined outcomes. It follows that to consider climate change as a
driver, it must be found consistent evidence that actors are including climate change
in national security planning and reacting to its impacts.
To do so, the research reconstructs the process of adaptation to climate change
in the North American Arctic from the point of view of the actors involved in homeland
defense and looks for the cause and the contextual factors of the process. The
research then provides systematic qualitative data (e.g., strategies, reports, grey
literature, journal articles, newspaper interviews) triangulated with some élite
interviews with climate security experts and government officials.
Through the framing of evidence into a causal mechanism supporting the
hypothesis of conscious adaptation, it is demonstrated that 1) proximity to
geographical change can account for a revitalization of the US Arctic posture with a
growing concern over homeland defense itself and 2) that climate change can act, in
the presence of some contextual factors, as a driver for national security planning at
all levels of strategy.
Tipologia IRIS:
Tesi di dottorato
Keywords:
climate change; national security; Arctic; United States; geopolitics; geostrategy
Elenco autori:
A. Lavorio
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