Abrupt and gradual temperature changes influence on the climatic suitability of Northwestern Alpine grapevine growing regions for the invasive Grape leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus Ball (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae)
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2018
Citazione:
Abrupt and gradual temperature changes influence on the climatic suitability of Northwestern Alpine grapevine growing regions for the invasive Grape leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus Ball (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae) / I.E. Rigamonti, L. Mariani, G. Cola, M. Jermini, J. Baumgärtner. - In: ACTA OECOLOGICA. - ISSN 1146-609X. - 91(2018 Aug), pp. 22-29. [10.1016/j.actao.2018.05.007]
Abstract:
The paper aims to elucidate the influence of abrupt and gradual climate changes on the suitability for colonization
of Scaphoideus titanus populations in grapevine-growing areas of the Northwestern Alpine region. This
study spans several decades of temperature recordings and is carried out in ten grapevine-growing areas. A timevarying
distributed delay with attrition model, linked to a grapevine phenology model, is used to simulate the
development of S. titanus populations and produce an annual Climatic Suitability Index (CSI). Area-specific CSI
time series were obtained. The Breusch-Godfrey test revealed few significant partial autocorrelations in nine
areas and the occurrence of six consecutive - first decreasing and then increasing - partial correlations in one case
only. The occurrence of abrupt and gradual changes of the index were studied via multiple least square regression
analyses. In general, the climatic suitability of all areas tended to improve through time. However,
gradual and abrupt temperature changes were not consistently reflected in gradual and abrupt CSI patterns:
abrupt and gradual CSI changes were observed in two areas, abrupt changes were detected in three areas, and
exclusively gradual changes in the remaining five. Pest control institutions of the region under study may deal
with different scenarios of pest status such as long-time presence and increasing risks, high colonization risks or
limited colonization risks for the foreseeable future. Institutions charged with pest control elsewhere are advised
to use a mechanistic demographic model to study area-specific infestation patterns and colonization risks because
the results obtained here cannot be transferred to other areas without site-specific evaluations
Tipologia IRIS:
01 - Articolo su periodico
Keywords:
Climate change; Physiologically-based demographic model; Climatic suitability; Forecast; Colonization risk
Elenco autori:
I.E. Rigamonti, L. Mariani, G. Cola, M. Jermini, J. Baumgärtner
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