Making sense of pollsters’ errors : an analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2019
Citazione:
Making sense of pollsters’ errors : an analysis of the 2014 second-order European election predictions / M. Giuliani. - In: JOURNAL OF ELECTIONS, PUBLIC OPINION AND PARTIES. - ISSN 1745-7289. - 29:2(2019 Apr), pp. 162-178. [10.1080/17457289.2018.1466786]
Abstract:
Pollsters have been recently accused of delivering poor electoral predictions. We argue that one of the reasons for their failures lies in the difficulty of including an updated deep understanding of electoral behaviour. Even if pollsters’ predictions are not forecasts produced by models, the set of choices needed to produce their estimates is not indifferent to a theoretical comprehension of electoral dynamics. We exemplify this lack of theory by using an original dataset consisting of 1057 party*poll observations in the case of the last European election. Pollsters failed to account for what we know about second-order elections, thus overestimating government and big parties, which normally obtain poor results in European elections, and underestimating new and Eurosceptic ones, which usually perform well.
Tipologia IRIS:
01 - Articolo su periodico
Keywords:
election polls; accuracy; second-order elections; European politics
Elenco autori:
M. Giuliani
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