Knowing the past to predict the future : land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2010
Citazione:
Knowing the past to predict the future : land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs / G.F. Ficetola, L. Maiorano, A. Falcucci, N. Dendoncker, L. Boitani, E. Padoa-Schioppa, C. Miaud, W. Thuiller. - In: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. - ISSN 1354-1013. - 16:2(2010), pp. 528-537. [10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01957.x]
Abstract:
Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used MAXENT to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.
Tipologia IRIS:
01 - Articolo su periodico
Keywords:
Alien invasive species; Amphibians; Future scenarios; Habitat suitability models; Invasion dynamics; Long term monitoring; Rana catesbeiana; Temporal dynamics; Ecology; Global and Planetary Change; 2300; Environmental Chemistry
Elenco autori:
G.F. Ficetola, L. Maiorano, A. Falcucci, N. Dendoncker, L. Boitani, E. Padoa-Schioppa, C. Miaud, W. Thuiller
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