Organic meat and milk from ruminants in Italy : a logistic model for measuring changes in the life cycle resulting from BSE. The strategic utility of a marketing hypothesis

To evaluate the trend of the organic zootechnical section with a satisfying degree of reliability a logystic-type development model was studied by interpolating data concerning the agricultural surface exploited for organic cattle breeding. This model, based on the product life-cycle theory, allows to identify the market position of the section examined and to foresee its development. Yet a special time-related event, from now on named "entelechian event" such as the BSE case in the last months, causes a significant change in the normal course of the life-cycle's evolving line. The section's development in the medium period was supposed by foreseeing the dynamics through which this "external" phenomenon influenced its trend and market performance, so that it becomes easier to plan an appropriate marketing strategy for organic meat.