Data di Pubblicazione:
2011
Citazione:
Hypothesis on a possible role of El Niño in the occurrence of influenza pandemics / A. Mazzarella, A. Giuliacci, F.E. Pregliasco. - In: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY. - ISSN 0177-798X. - 105:1/2(2011 Aug), pp. 65-69.
Abstract:
The El Niño phenomenon is the Earth's strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Niño is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Niño event. At present, the next El Niño will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23-27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.
Tipologia IRIS:
01 - Articolo su periodico
Keywords:
influenza; influenza pandemic; strength index; multivariate ENSO index; influenza virus subtype
Elenco autori:
A. Mazzarella, A. Giuliacci, F.E. Pregliasco
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