Emigration as an Electoral Issue: Public Concern and Political Choice in Eastern and Southern Europe

It is well established that attitudes towards immigration are linked to policy preferences and voting behaviour. However, we lack insights on the relevance of the other side of the migration coin: emigration. This is especially pertinent in the European Union (EU), which guarantees free movement of persons and where large-scale mobility gained momentum following the Eastern enlargement (East to West) and the euro crisis (South to North). Drawing on a 2021 survey conducted in nine peripheral EU countries, this study investigates whether concerns about emigration shape electoral behaviour. Findings indicate that such concerns reduce support for governing parties, but only among individuals with high levels of political trust, highlighting trust as a key moderating factor. At the country level, concerns about emigration favour radical-right parties, though not exclusively. In fact, the politicization of emigration can potentially benefit (or disadvantage) a range of parties depending on national political conditions.