The potential impact of the Italian ‘premierato’ reform on cabinet durability: the increased risk of early elections

This article evaluates the potential impact of the ‘premierato’ reform – currently under debate in the Italian parliament – on government stability. Promoted by the Meloni government, the reform proposes the direct election of the prime minister and aims to increase the stability of Italian cabinets. Using comparative data and a competing risks survival analysis, we estimate the risk of termination for Italian cabinets in various constitutional scenarios. Results suggest that the reform would reduce inter-electoral cabinet replacements but increase the risk of early elections. While overall cabinet duration would improve with the ‘premierato’ reform, greater stability could be achieved through the implementation of a constructive vote of no-confidence.