From democratization to political liberalization: formalizing, operationalizing and testing political regime choice and change
Tesi di Dottorato
Data di Pubblicazione:
2016
Citazione:
From democratization to political liberalization: formalizing, operationalizing and testing political regime choice and change / M. Villa ; tutor: F. Franchino ; coordinator: F. Zucchini. DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE SOCIALI E POLITICHE, 2016 Jun 16. 27. ciclo, Anno Accademico 2014. [10.13130/villa-matteo_phd2016-06-16].
Abstract:
Over a decade has gone by since the renaissance of autocratic studies, which greatly contributed to refining the knowledge accumulated from the democratization studies literature. However, almost all contributions within the field have focused on classifying autocracies along "autocratic types" (e.g. placing countries into categories that comprise civil, military, royal or personalistic dictatorships), while close to none asked whether we should be interested in explaining variation along political liberalization levels.
I propose a measure of political regime openness which is correlated but significantly different from indexes of democracy. I then produce a tripartite classification of the political space linked to a theoretical model (dividing countries between closed autocracies, open autocracies, and democracies), and empirically test the correlates of these liberalization types and pro- and anti-liberalization transitions in 154 countries of the world between 1970 and 2007.
I produce multiple tripartite classifications according to different political regime openness thresholds, and show that empirical findings are highly robust to different conceptualizations of this latent variable.
To assuage the problems of high missingness levels in a host of theoretically-relevant correlates, I employ known but seldom-used empirical methods (multiple imputations). This allows me to include a much higher number of regressors without resorting to listwise deletion or to bias-inducing single/"expert" imputation techniques. At the same time, by incorporating the uncertainty around missing data instead of doing away with it, this allows me to retain only very significant findings and to do away with the rest.
Empirical findings show that, after controlling for relevant correlates, no political liberalization or autocratic retrenchment (time-clustering) "wave" occurs within the sample period. On the contrary, spatial autocorrelation and regime duration are key to understanding autocratic and democratic resilience.
In terms of substantive socio-economic correlates, I find that inequality levels have a crucial role to play in determining political liberalization levels at the early stages of a polity, but tend to become irrelevant later on. I am also able to adjudicate between long-standing theories of inequality and democracy, finding in favor of those arguing that higher liberalization levels should be found at average, not low, levels of inequality.
My findings also show that the modernization theory should be problematized: while countries with higher levels of economic well-being tend to be more politically liberal, the same higher levels of economic well-being tend to tip the balance in favor of regime resilience in general. In autocracies, this process is liable to open up a rift between the preferences of the population and those of the governing elite(s). This is most evident in non-rentier countries, where governing actors have less leeway to buy out consensus, and is also currently applicable to hydrocarbon-dependent countries who have to cope with low international prices.
These findings are relevant to scholars and policymakers alike. First, they suggest that the international community should think twice about supporting democratization attempts, which may have a higher likelihood of failing whenever structural conditions are not favorable in the first place. Sometimes, political liberalizations within autocracies could be preferred.
Second, while GDP growth is correlated with changes in political liberalization levels, in fact economic recessions are only found to increase the likelihood of autocratic retrenchment. Policymakers arguing in favor of economic sanctions are advised to take into account that the most likely
Tipologia IRIS:
Tesi di dottorato
Keywords:
liberalization; democratization; democracy; autocracy; authoritarism; dictatorship; formal theory; empirical testing; large-N; inequality; modernization; wave; waves; clustering; cluster; spatial; diffusion; violence
Elenco autori:
M. Villa
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