Glorious past, uncertain present, bad future? : assessing effects of land-use changes on habitat suitability for a threatened farmland bird species
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2010
Citazione:
Glorious past, uncertain present, bad future? : assessing effects of land-use changes on habitat suitability for a threatened farmland bird species / M. BRAMBILLA, F. CASALE, V. BERGERO, G. BOGLIANI, G.M. CROVETTO, R. FALCO, M. ROATI, I. NEGRI. - In: BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION. - ISSN 0006-3207. - 143:11(2010), pp. 2770-2778. [10.1016/j.biocon.2010.07.025]
Abstract:
Land-use changes have strong impacts on biological communities. Among them, land abandonment is
threatening a large number of conservation-concern species associated with semi-natural habitats
shaped by ‘traditional’ farming. We focused on the red-backed shrike as a model for investigating the
effect of land abandonment on a threatened bird species, and used historical data to model dynamic scenarios.
We explored variations in habitat suitability from the 1950s to the present and predicted possible
future variations. After investigating local habitat preferences of the species, we formulated a spatially
explicit model of habitat suitability for shrikes according to current land-use types; then, we evaluated
past habitat suitability, by applying the model to three known past scenarios, and simulated the habitat
changes after land abandonment. By combining a habitat-association approach with past and future land
use scenarios, we assessed and predicted the effects of habitat changes caused by abandonment. Shrike
occurrence was favoured by the cover of four types of grassland and of shrubland with trees, and negatively
affected by broadleaved woodlands. The current average habitat suitability is less than half of what
it was in the 1950s. Future predictions in a complete abandonment scenario suggest that important
decrease could be expected 10 or 20 years after abandonment, and that after 30 years the red-backed
shrike would be completely extinct. Alternative scenarios involving partial abandonment suggested that
subsidy policies may mitigate the effects of abandonment. Knowing land-use dynamics allowed the
exploration of effects of land-use changes and corroborated the importance of low-intensity farming
for conservation.
Tipologia IRIS:
01 - Articolo su periodico
Elenco autori:
M. Brambilla, F. Casale, V. Bergero, G. Bogliani, G.M. Crovetto, R. Falco, M. Roati, I. Negri
Link alla scheda completa: